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Knowledge Gap: The aggregation of clay minerals in liquid water exemplifies colloidal self-assembly in nature. These negatively charged aluminosilicate platelets interact through multiple mechanisms with different sensitivities to particle shape, surface charge, aqueous chemistry, and interparticle distance and exhibit complex aggregation structures. Experiments have difficulty resolving the associated colloidal assemblages at the scale of individual particles. Conversely, all-atom molecular dynamics (MD) simulations provide detailed insight on clay colloidal interaction mechanisms, but they are limited to systems containing a few particles. Simulations: We develop a new coarse-grained (CG) model capable of representing assemblages of hundreds of clay particles with accuracy approaching that of MD simulations, at a fraction of the computational cost. Our CG model is parameterized based on MD simulations of a pair of smectite clay particles in liquid water. A distinctive feature of our model is that it explicitly represents the electrical double layer (EDL), i.e., the cloud of charge-compensating cations that surrounds the clay particles. Findings: Our model captures the simultaneous importance of long-range colloidal interactions (i.e., interactions consistent with simplified analytical models, already included in extant clay CG models) and short-range interactions such as ion correlation and surface and ion hydration effects. The resulting simulations correctly predict, at low solid-water ratios, the existence of ordered arrangements of parallel particles separated by water films with a thickness up to ~10 nm and, at high solid-water ratios, the coexistence of crystalline and osmotic swelling states, in agreement with experimental observations. 

Abstract On June 6, 2023, the Kakhovka Dam in Ukraine experienced a catastrophic breach that led to the loss of life and substantial economic values. Prior to the breach, the supporting structures downstream of the spillway had shown signs of being compromised. Here, we use multi-source satellite data, meteorological reanalysis, and dam design criteria to document the dam’s pre-failure condition. We find that anomalous operation of the Kakhovka Dam began in November 2022, following the destruction of a bridge segment, which led to persistent overtopping from late April 2023 up to the breach, contributing to the erosion of the spillway foundation. Moreover, our findings also highlight safety and risk-reduction measures pivotal in avoiding such scenarios. To help prevent future disasters, we advocate for greater transparency in the design parameters of key water structures to enable risk management, and conclude that remote sensing technology can help ensuring water infrastructure safety. 

Abstract. Wildfire is a critical ecological disturbance in terrestrial ecosystems. Australia, in particular, has experienced increasingly large and severe wildfires over the past 2 decades, while globally fire risk is expected to increase significantly due to projected increases in extreme weather and drought conditions. Therefore, understanding and predicting fire severity is critical for evaluating current and future impacts of wildfires on ecosystems. Here, we first introduce a vegetation-type-specific fire severity classification applied to satellite imagery, which is further used to predict fire severity during the fire season (November to March) using antecedent drought conditions, fire weather (i.e. wind speed, air temperature, and atmospheric humidity), and topography. Compared to fire severity maps from the fire extent and severity mapping (FESM) dataset, we find that fire severity prediction results using the vegetation-type-specific thresholds show good performance in extreme- and high-severity classification, with accuracies of 0.64 and 0.76, respectively. Based on a “leave-one-out” cross-validation experiment, we demonstrate high accuracy for both the fire severity classification and the regression using a suite of performance metrics: the determination coefficient (R2), mean absolute error (MAE), and root-mean-square error (RMSE), which are 0.89, 0.05, and 0.07, respectively. Our results also show that the fire severity prediction results using the vegetation-type-specific thresholds could better capture the spatial patterns of fire severity and have the potential to be applicable for seasonal fire severity forecasts due to the availability of seasonal forecasts of the predictor variables. 

Abstract. Forest fires, while destructive and dangerous, are important to the functioning and renewal of ecosystems. Over the past 2 decades, large-scale, severe forest fires have become more frequent globally, and the risk is expected to increase as fire weather and drought conditions intensify. To improve quantification of the intensity and extent of forest fire damage, we have developed a 30 m resolution global forest burn severity (GFBS) dataset of the degree of biomass consumed by fires from 2003 to 2016. To develop this dataset, we used the Global Fire Atlas product to determine when and where forest fires occurred during that period and then we overlaid the available Landsat surface reflectance products to obtain pre-fire and post-fire normalized burn ratios (NBRs) for each burned pixel, designating the difference between them as dNBR and the relative difference as RdNBR. We compared the GFBS dataset against the Canada Landsat Burned Severity (CanLaBS) product, showing better agreement than the existing Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS)-based global burn severity dataset (MOdis burn SEVerity, MOSEV) in representing the distribution of forest burn severity over Canada. Using the in situ burn severity category data available for the 2013 wildfires in southeastern Australia, we demonstrated that GFBS could provide burn severity estimation with clearer differentiation between the high-severity and moderate-/low-severity classes, while such differentiation among the in situ burn severity classes is not captured in the MOSEV product. Using the CONUS-wide composite burn index (CBI) as a ground truth, we showed that dNBR from GFBS was more strongly correlated with CBI (r=0.63) than dNBR from MOSEV (r=0.28). RdNBR from GFBS also exhibited better agreement with CBI (r=0.56) than RdNBR from MOSEV (r=0.20). On a global scale, while the dNBR and RdNBR spatial patterns extracted by GFBS are similar to those of MOSEV, MOSEV tends to provide higher burn severity levels than GFBS. We attribute this difference to variations in reflectance values and the different spatial resolutions of the two satellites. The GFBS dataset provides a more precise and reliable assessment of burn severity than existing available datasets. These enhancements are crucial for understanding the ecological impacts of forest fires and for informing management and recovery efforts in affected regions worldwide. The GFBS dataset is freely accessible at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.10037629 (He et al., 2023).